多因素共振 影响全球资产表现Multiple factors resonate, affecting global asset performance

　　Q.1：7月以来，以日本为首的全球市场迎来快速下跌，上周全球资本市场更是遭遇了“黑色星期一”。如何看待本轮全球资本市场的剧烈波动?海外股市出现剧烈震荡原因何在?

      Q.1: Since July, global markets led by Japan have seen a rapid decline, and last week the global capital markets even experienced a "Black Monday". How to view the sharp volatility in this round of global capital markets? What are the reasons behind the severe turbulence in overseas stock markets?

　　A：近期全球市场大类资产价格出现较大波动，有多重因素影响。

      A: Recently, the prices of major assets in global markets have fluctuated significantly, which is influenced by multiple factors.

　　在上周一全球市场大跌之前，其实已经有一些迹象表明风险偏好在走弱，比如美国的经济数据在7月总体指向趋弱，自7月中旬美国通胀超预期降温以来，美联储的降息交易就已开启;非常火热的日元套息交易亦开始松动，日元在彼时即已开始大幅升值，日股也呈现波动率走高和下跌的状态。

      Before the global market crash last Monday, there were already signs indicating a weakening of risk appetite. For example, U.S. economic data in July generally pointed to a slowdown. Since inflation in the U.S. unexpectedly cooled in mid-July, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts had already emerged. The extremely hot Japanese yen carry trade also began to loosen, with the yen starting to appreciate significantly at that time, while the Japanese stock market showed increased volatility and a downward trend.

　　日本央行加息且态度意外偏鹰，套息交易的解除加剧，加之最近包括美股在内的财报披露十分密集，以“七姐妹”*(微软、‌苹果、‌谷歌、‌英伟达、‌亚马逊、‌Meta、‌特斯拉)为代表的科技巨头表现并未给市场带来新的惊喜点。8月2日晚间，美国非农就业爆冷，引发衰退担忧，叠加当日部分科技股巨头等因业绩不及预期而暴跌，中东局势出现波动，以上密集出现的不利因素激发市场避险情绪陡升，快速演绎成了衰退交易。这些因素在上周一亚洲开盘汇集成了一个高潮，而市场的剧烈调整可能还引发了杠杆平仓、CTA平仓以及风险平价调仓等技术性操作，这些也推动或加剧了市场的波动。

       The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised interest rates with an unexpectedly hawkish stance, intensifying the unwinding of carry trades. Additionally, recent earnings disclosures, including those of U.S. stocks, have been extremely dense, and tech giants represented by the "Seven Sisters"* (Microsoft, Apple, Google, NVIDIA, Amazon, Meta, Tesla) failed to bring new positive surprises to the market. On the evening of August 2, the U.S. non-farm payroll data unexpectedly disappointed, triggering recession concerns. Coupled with the sharp decline of some tech giants due to earnings missing expectations and fluctuations in the Middle East situation, these densely emerging negative factors suddenly fueled market risk aversion, rapidly evolving into recession trading. These factors reached a climax at the opening of Asian markets last Monday. The 剧烈 (sharp) market correction may have also triggered technical operations such as leveraged position liquidation, CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) position unwinding, and risk parity portfolio rebalancing, which further pushed or exacerbated market volatility.

　　本轮市场的震动，如果要究其根本原因，还是在于市场对于美国衰退的担忧，加之前期龙头公司涨幅较大，估值偏高，二季度盈利又未持续给予较大惊喜，在衰退担忧之下，下跌来得较为迅猛。

       To explore the root causes of the current market volatility, it essentially stems from market concerns about a U.S. recession. Coupled with the fact that leading companies had significant prior gains, leading to elevated valuations, and their Q2 earnings failed to continuously deliver substantial positive surprises, the decline under recession worries has been rather rapid.

　　*以上公司仅为举例示意用途，不代表投资建议。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

       *The above companies are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. The market is risky, and investment requires caution.

　　美国经济仍有可能“软着陆” The U.S. economy may still achieve a "soft landing"

　　Q.2：结合全球宏观环境、货币政策等因素，全球市场的震荡可能如何演变?对海外市场的后市走向有何看法?

      Q.2: Considering factors such as the global macro - environment and monetary policies, how might the volatility in the global market evolve? What are your views on the future direction of overseas markets?

　　A：上周市场消息面比较平淡，目前首先要观察市场能否在震荡中逐步企稳。

      A: Last week, market news was relatively uneventful. Currently, the first thing to observe is whether the market can gradually stabilize amid volatility.

　　从全球宏观来看，目前还没有确切的数据表明，美国经济会出现“硬着陆”，7月就业数据的爆冷也需要后续的一些数据去确认是否形成了趋势。在货币政策上面，美联储9月降息基本已成定局，至于是降息25个基点，还是像现在市场定价的那样降50个基点，也还是取决于后续美国经济数据是否有明确走弱的迹象，目前到9月会议还有一段时间，需要紧密跟踪。而9月降息之后，则要看市场主体如何反应。

      From a global macro perspective, there is currently no definitive data indicating that the U.S. economy will experience a "hard landing". The unexpectedly weak July employment data also requires follow-up data to confirm whether a trend has formed. In terms of monetary policy, a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has basically become a foregone conclusion. Whether it will be a 25-basis-point cut or a 50-basis-point cut as currently priced by the market still depends on whether there are clear signs of a weakening U.S. economy in subsequent data. As there is still a period of time until the September meeting, close tracking is needed. After the September rate cut, it will depend on the reaction of market participants.

　　尽管本轮调整从形式上看比较剧烈，但从基本面的趋势来看，这个方向并不算意外。如上面所说，目前市场担忧的因素需要数据来验证，也需要货币政策调整后来观察效果，在没有看到明确信息前，或维持震荡。而后续如果认为仍按照软着陆的方向行进，则风险资产在降息助力下仍将有所表现，如更多迹象表明可能会有硬着陆的风险，则还是需要注意风险。

      Although this round of adjustment appears relatively drastic in form, from the perspective of fundamental trends, this direction is not unexpected. As mentioned above, the factors currently worrying the market need to be verified by data, and the effect also needs to be observed after monetary policy adjustments. Before clear information is seen, the market may maintain volatility. In the follow-up, if it is believed that the economy is still moving towards a soft landing, risky assets are expected to perform under the boost of interest rate cuts. However, if more signs indicate the risk of a hard landing, risks should still be noted.

　　海外股债资产跷跷板效应明显 The seesaw effect between overseas stock and bond assets is obvious

　　Q.3：在全球经济和金融市场的巨震中，‌大类资产的配置策略显得尤为重要。‌面对不确定的市场环境，多元资产配置的优势有哪些?

      Q.3: In the midst of huge shocks in the global economy and financial markets, the allocation strategy of major asset classes has become particularly important. In the face of an uncertain market environment, what are the advantages of diversified asset allocation?

　　A：这次的市场波动由于主要是衰退预期引起的，所以股债跷跷板的效应非常明显，这也非常直观地体现了多元资产配置可以带来的优势。另外，我们也看到即使是同一因素引发的市场波动，不同地区的市场因为其自身的特点，表现也是有所不同的。基金的投资组合可以进行广泛的资产配置，可以充分利用市场上的工具，利用资产之间不同的特点，丰富组合的资产配置类别，从而在这样的市场里面提高风险收益比。

      A: The current market volatility is mainly caused by recession expectations, so the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds is very obvious, which also intuitively reflects the advantages brought by diversified asset allocation. In addition, we have also observed that even for market fluctuations triggered by the same factor, markets in different regions show different performances due to their own characteristics. The investment portfolio of funds can carry out extensive asset allocation, make full use of market tools, utilize the different characteristics of assets, and enrich the categories of portfolio asset allocation, so as to improve the risk - return ratio in such a market.